The La Niña that never was
Chris Nikolaou, 16 October 2024
Since May of this year, multiple meteorological services have called for a La Niña weather pattern to take hold. This has been the prediction from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States to Australia’s own Bureau of Meteorology. However, it was not to occur. A season full of promise has been marred by drought in the south of the country and a widespread frost event in late September.
What is La Niña
Since May, the BOM has been continuously set to La Niña ‘watch’ as the ENSO status. The BOM defines La Niña as “the positive phase of the El Nino Southern Oscilation….it is associated with cooler than average seas surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean” “La Niña conditions generally result in above average rainfall over much of Australia.”
In spite of these La Niña forecasts, the weather pattern has not verified yet. In fact, parts of South Australia have had less than half their average annual rainfall for the calendar year to date. Over September the dry pattern accelerated with WA, SA, VIC and parts of NSW all experiencing below average rainfall.
Late September frost event
To add insult to injury, there was multiple wide spread frost events in the second half of September this year. The events covered three states impacting southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. A September 27th, 2024 article in Grain Central quoted a local Murray Mallee agronomist stating that local temperatures got to as low -8 degrees. The article went on to discuss the merits and economics of cutting crops for hay. There has been speculation that New South Wales was also hit hard by the frosts. However, there has not been the same reports of cutting crops as in South Australia.
Putting it all together
The dry September coupled with a widespread frost event has reduced the expected size of this year’s crops from what they could have been earlier in the season. ABARES is currently forecasting a national wheat crop of 31.8MMT. This would be up on last season's production but is at risk of being reduced further. Currently there are rains forecast for much of the national wheat belt. If these fail to materialise, production estimates will certainly drop again. Also, there is concern that late season rains will delay harvest and potentially lead to downgrades.
Global Update
On Friday October 11th, the Russian Ag ministry conducted a meeting with local exporters. At this meeting, it was recommended that exports should be sold at a minimum price of $250 USD Freight on Board (FOB). In the past, exporters have found ways to circumvent these “recommendations”. Alternatively, Russia can be an unsafe place for those who break government rules! Either way, the Russian price for wheat is increasing and this is good news for Aussie growers not affected by drought or frost this season.
Advantage Grain’s best price averaging wheat, barley and canola marketing programs sell an equal portion of your grain each month over a 2, 4, 5 or 10 month period. This takes the volatility and stress out of post harvest grain marketing and lets you focus on doing what you do best – farming!
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